The next war will be won — or lost — in orbit

We in the West have learned many things from the conflict in Ukraine. Four years on from its full-scale invasion — the war in fact having started in 2014 — we find ourselves, or should find ourselves, with a far better grasp of the nature of war, and a far greater sense of the dangers we face. That is reflected most visibly in promises across Western Europe to increase defense spending. But what is the concrete impact of this? As many commentators have said, it’s not just what you spend, but how you spend; and the brutal reality is that even with generous and sustained investment, it takes years to create the kind of defense ecosystem that creates real deterrence.